In Poker it's Called Showing Your Hand

It may not have been the smartest thing for Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson to announce he wants his party, Framsóknarflokkurinn to be part of a left government in the upcoming elections. I have been singing their party's praise for playing a middle of the road game and therefore exercising some control over the direction of the government and now the gig is up.  They could have continued to support the next government and held on to the no confidence vote threat and got their way on almost all issues.  But alas, the allure of having a minister seat or two is too strong to deny. But Sigmundur is running the risk of marginalizing his smaller percentage even more.  As Smári Jökull Jónsson puts it, and I agree with his logic here, why vote then for Framsóknarflokkurinn? http://smarijokull.blog.is/blog/smarijokull/entry/820906/ If people want a left government, Samfylking and VG would be the best choice so why not just vote for them?   Framsóknarflokkurinn was doing fine tempering the government so it did not lean too far left, but now we see their cards.  It would have been wiser to keep bluffing.

GTB

Vill vera í vinstri stjórn

Athugasemdir

[Þór Jóhannesson, 6.3.2009 kl. 01:41]

You obviously dont understand Icelandic politics and especially Framsókn if you read the "hand" this way.

For us seasond "players" in this type of corruption politics - we are calling Sigmundurs bluff, he is bluffing left wing voters to come his way so he can get into bed with his favorite - the corrupted Independence party!

[Gregg Thomas Batson (IP-tala skráð) 6.3.2009 kl. 02:12]

Þór,

Politics is politics no matter where it's played.  Iceland is not any different or special.  I'm willing to bet 1000 kr (we are in a kreppa) that Framsóknarflokkurinn does not side with Sjálfsstæðisflokkurinn in the next election. This would be political suicide. If they do I will write a retraction stating I was wrong and you were right.   If you are a seasoned player you should have no problem taking this bet. I don't expect anything from you (other than my 1000 kr) if (when) you lose.  You seem like a betting man so what do you say, should I deal you in?

GTB

[Þór Jóhannesson, 6.3.2009 kl. 02:27]

I will definetly take this bet - on one condition, if Framsókn has a chance to make a two way majority with Sjálfstæðisflokkur or 3 way majority with VG and Samfylking it will take the 2 way. OK deal? (1000 krónur) it is kreppa?

[Gregg Thomas Batson (IP-tala skráð) 6.3.2009 kl. 08:19]

Þór,

VG and Samfylking already hold a simple majority on their own so the whole bet may never materialize.  But I have found there is always a big difference between poll numbers and actual election numbers here in Iceland so as you say-if Framsókn has a chance to make a two way majority with Sjálfstæðisflokkur or 3 way majority with VG and Samfylking you say it will take the 2 way. I say it will fear the political fallout and stay to the left (this time). I accept the bet with this condition and we have a deal.

GTB

[Þór Jóhannesson, 6.3.2009 kl. 10:13]

Bet on!