Never ASSUME. You make an ASS out of U and ME.

Jón Gunnar commented:

I see that you are not dead, still whining and complaining. No, we don't know each other.

And yes, I have also heard all your arguments before by people that used to hang around the Kárahnjúkar Dam all summer long and "protest" (to be read drink beer and have sex with strangers in tents) and hang around at Sirkus Pub and play chess when they were in town and curse Davíð Oddson like the plague.  I hate to break it to you but your blog entry about this interview is not inventing the wheel all over again, it has been heard before and it still sounds as pointless as you claim the interview with Davíð was.  My bet is though that around 70% of the nations population was watching and listening to what he was saying and to see the dramatic change in peoples commennts on news of the interview in Davíð's favour is quite refreshing and hopefully a sign that the brainwashing of the Baugur Group with all it's media companies could be washing off.
Hopefully you will take a bath too.

Wow, I didn't realize the protesters in Kárahnjúkar were pro-industry, pro-whaling people who could make such good arguments. I never could understand being a tree hugger in a country with no trees.  Drinking beer and having sex with strangers in tents? Are you not referring to Verslunamannahelgi?  I can't see how you can read into my article that i think Davið is the plague.  I have given very good, objective reasons as to why he should not be the head of the central bank. The main reasons have mostly to do with what he did AFTER the bank collapse. Here they are once again: 

1. He is a politician.  I have already explained why having a politician as the head of a central bank is a bad idea.  If you read the technical suggestions from the IMF you would see that almost all countries have a  specific ban on a politician being the head of a central bank.

2. He is not qualified to do the job.  Central banks don't lend themselves well to on the job training.

3. Taking a 75% share in Glitnir(later anulled by the nationalization of the bank), essentually making private debt sovereign debt.

4. The pegging of the kronur ( My personal favorite).  It will go down in the economic books as the shortest in history (one day) and probably the dumbest. This, by the way, helps the "not qualified " argument.

5. For implying on national television (Kastljós) that Iceland would not cover the debts of the banks.  This one alone is grounds for dismissal in any normal circumstance.  You can watch this in the video below.

If you could lose the "my football team is better than your football team" mentality for just a few minutes and try to come up with a rational reason why he should remain the Head of the Central Bank I am willing to here it.  Anyway you will be hard pressed to find an economist who agrees with you because most have listed these exact reasons for why he should go.

As far as the 70% of the nation watching, I hope you are not implying that 70% of the nation now supports Davið.  That would require math usually reserved for the old banks or only counting the blog pages with a blue background.

And why, why, why does criticism of Davið automatically mean that  I am a dam hating, beer drinking, sex with strangers, chess playing friend of Baugur or Jón Ásgeir? (OK , I do drink beer.)This is just a demonization tactic used by people who can't make their argument using the truth.  I can assure you I have no love for the man or the company. After all Jón Ásgeir brought down FLGroup and that was in the good times! For the record, and purely politically speaking, I think Davið was a great politician.  One does not hold power for so long by muddling through it.  He just should not be the Head of the Central Bank.  Period. 

For those diehards that still think Davið was preaching the Gospel on Kastljós here is a video:

GTB

Swan Song

I did my best to sit through the Kastljós interveiw with Davið Oddsson but I really didn't see the point.  I had heard all of  the arguments before.  He says he warned of the impending crisis. That the banks had zero chance of surviving.  After watching Geir Haarde in the Hardtalk interview - you know, the "I quess I should have", interview, I have no doubt that Davið told something to this effect to Geir.  When asked by the interviewer if Davið had said something like this to Geir, instead of flat out saying "No", Geir replies that he won't discuss the private conversations he had with Davið. Translation......YES HE DID. And so what.  If the head of the central bank couldn't see the problems Iceland was heading to all he had to do was read some international papers written on the subject long before it happened.  So all this proves is that the man can read, not that he was Noah warning of a flood.

Ok, so the banks are the ones that caused the crisis. I got it. You warned the government (controlled by your own former political party, nice way to let them take the fall) that the banks would fail.  Got it.  Again, so what. Davið is missing the point.  The point is about trust in the Central Bank and I have already listed several objective reasons why he should be removed. (See the blog entry)  http://www.gregg.blog.is/blog/gregg/entry/799167/  not because of the crisis but because of former political affiliations, education, and work performance.  If he thinks his work performance was so great he must have stopped reading the international news after the crisis hit.  Many well respected economists are completely shocked he still has his job.  Davið states that as a sign of trust the foreign banks allowed money for Icelandic businesses to go through the Central Bank.  When it is the last bank standing did they really have any choice?

This interview was just Davið's swan song.  He was composed and calm and I think he even got sentimental when he called the Central Bank "bankinn minn"(my bank).  How nice.  Hopefully this is his last week in the job and hopefully his last interview on the subject.  It should have been put to rest with Davið doing he honorable thing and stepping down.  Instead he has chosen fall down.

GTB 

 

 

Davíð í Kastljósviðtali

The Icelandic Language is a Terrible Thing To Waste (Especially in Iceland)

I have been reading several articles about Jonas Moody, the man who worked in Iceland for six years, got laid off, and found out he could not collect unemployment.  Of all the articles I have read, the most surprising is the one he wrote himself-(http://www.icelandreview.com/icelandreview/daily_life/?cat_id=16571&ew_0_a_id=320153)      in which he states-

"I can decline nouns with the best of them (kýr-kú-kú-kýr… ær-á-á-ær), I make a mean plokkfiskur (fish casserole), and I’m slated to exchange rings with my favorite Icelander pretty soon."

I have spent much time reading bank contracts, labor contracts and other important documents because, for some crazy reason, I thought I would be helpful to know my legal obligations, my rights and things I may be, or not be, entitled to.  Sometimes it can take a long time thumbing through the Icelandic/English dictionary or nagging my wife or friends to explain it all to me (in my mother tongue of course) but I do try.  To be honest I still don't know everything I should about the Icelandic system and that is mainly do to the fact that I don't still (maybe never?) have a perfect understanding of Icelandic. Spoken Icelandic, not too bad, written, forget it. But I can guarantee you in these times, I know if I can be laid off and collect unemployment. (I can, and I am not an Icelandic citizen.)

Here we have someone, a fellow countryman, who can speak and presumably write Icelandic like, well, an Icelander. A stunning achievemnet in you compare that with the mangled prose of Paul Nikolov in the Althingi. (maybe he is better now, but I don't really care).  So Jonas has lived here, worked here, watched the news here, hopefully knows that the US in not part of the European Economic Area, and thinks he is entitled to unempoyment benefits because he paid taxes. That argument doesn't work for foreigners working in the US so how does he think it would work here.  He should have made better use of those Icelandic language courses and checked it out before, instead of complaining about it now.

GTB

 

„Fangaskipti" í kreppunni

Stealing the Limelight

Framsóknarflokkurinn has done it once again.  The first time was by giving conditional support to the new government, carefully steering closer to their agenda. They let everybody know right then who is in really in charge with the threat of a no confidence vote.  They have even used the threat, single handedly saving whaling in Iceland.  And now we have Höskuldur, probably a little bitter over the "hey you won/oops sorry , you lost" fiasco at the party elections, stealing the moment away from VG and Samfylkingin ( and in a small way, his own party) and twisting it into a "look how cautious, lets do it right" moment , mostly for him, but also(in a small way) for Framsóknarflokkurinn.  It does put the party in a slightly dangerous position,  exposing a small fracture within, leaving Birkir Jón with some work to do in the primary. But the Seðlabanki bill will get passed this week, and until it does, Framsóknarflokkurinn is in the news because of it; giving them the spotlight to show their economic rescue plan.  The revelation her is that VG and Samfylkingin are powerless without Framsóknflokkurinn,  But Framsóknarflokkurinn has to be careful not to ruin the opportunity they gave themselves. A tight rope to walk, but so far, so good.

GTB

Lausn ekki fundin

The Name of the Game

Whenever something that seemed wrong or irrational to me to in the world I would go and as my father why this was happening.  For an example -"How can the US embargo a communist country like Cuba and freely trade with a Communist country like China?"  My father always had the same response which was -"What's the name of the game?"  I can remember the first time he said this to me and I replied "I don't know. What is the name of the game?" To which he replied and always replies- "MONEY!" A simple solution to all the perplexing problems in the world.  If you want to know why people do the things they do just remember they are thinking about money.   Which leads me to the foreign travel agencies.  These agencies are not bastions of moral priciples, they are money making businesses just like all other businesses and they will not remove Iceland from their travel books as long as there is a buck, or a Euro or a pound to make.  They will make threats of economic terrorism and try to rattle the Icelanders but their industry is highly competitive and the one that can offer the most usually does the best.  And in the event that some short sighted agency does remove Iceland, another will surely step into the breach to give their clients choice, because that agency will know what the name of the game is.

GTB

Hóta að taka Ísland út

That Makes How Many Times?

If some Icelanders are opposed to whaling due to "negative" publicity, then why do they insist on dragging the issue continuously into the spotlight of the world press.  When Einar K. issued the quota for five years this was a blessing for those fearing bad publicity.  Once the initial protests were lodged and the story broke with the world news agencies the rough part was over. All the Icelanders had to do was to ride out the storm for a week or two by keeping their mouths shut and something else would come along and the quota issue would be forgotten -FOR FIVE WHOLE YEARS!  But no, Steingrímur decided to drag it back into the spotlight by reviewing the quota.  Well, that wasn't enough publicity apparently, so he again gives the quota more publicity by letting it stand, but for only one year.  Why only a year? So the issue can receive even more attention the next year too. That will make a total of four times this quota issue will make it into the press in the course of about a year.  Not a very smart way to avoid the "negative" publicity everyone is afraid of.  Does anyone know what the quota for whales is in Norway?  I sure don't.  Maybe that is because they don't announce it to the world FOUR TIMES A YEAR!

GTB

Kvalræði sjávarútvegsráðherra

Good Conclusion To A Poor Decision

Steingrímur has allowed the whaling quota to stand for this year.  This news comes really as no surprise.  I had stated previously that this was a lose/lose proposition for him and it would have been best, politically, to let this be decided by the new government in the spring.  His party will be upset but Steingrímur was faced with a possible vote of no confidence by the Parliament.  How foolish it would have been to throw away the hopes of the new government on such an issue.  Apparently Steingrímur saw it this way too.  So having really no choice he allowed the quota to stand.  A very good decision.  Too bad reviewing the quota was such a poor one.

GTB

Ákvörðun um hvalveiðar stendur

Two Hopes

Is anyone taking bets on whether Davið will actually show up to this meeting?  I think there are two hopes of this happening.  No hope and Bob Hope.  And Bob Hope is dead.

GTB

Seðlabankastjórar funda með viðskiptanefnd

No More Cruel Than Domestication

Imagine being a whale. You are born in the open ocean. Your home is as vast as the sea itself. You travel where you want ,when you want to.  You find your meals every day. You are with your family and your survival mostly depends on them and yourself.  You are free. However there is a small chance that sometime later in life you will be hunted, chased down by a ship and stabbed with a harpoon. And there is also a chance your death may not be quick. 

Now imagine being a sheep. You are born in a house with shit under your feet.  You are poked and proded and if you are a boy you are most likley to have your vas deferens crushed. (In the most humane way, of course.) Food is brought to you when someone feels like bringing it.  It is crowded and doesn't smell pleasant.  For a few months you are allowed to roam outside until you are forced marched to a corral where you will be separated from your family, starved, crammed into a truck and let into another building where you will be killed- quickly.

Now which do you think is more inhumane?

GTB

Gegn hvalveiðum

Freedom of Choice

Speaking purely politically, it was a brilliant move by Einar K. to give a five year whale quota on the way out the door.  He must of had inside information that someone from VG would be taking over his ministry.  How does making use of a sustainable resource falls outside the VG platform can't be explained but what a predicament Steingrimur is in now that he has chosen to review that quota.  Does he do the will of his party and core supporters (17%), a minority in the government and population respectively, and change the quota and possibly end whaling? Or does he live up to all that democracy, will of the people (67%) stuff he is always ranting about and leave the quota as is? Unless he can come up with some solution equally satifying to both sides it will be a lose/lose situation for Steingrimur and he would have done best to let Einar's decision stand for 80 days and let the next government with majority deal with it.  But too late!

The real winners in all of this are,of course, Framsóknarflokkurinn.  They have shown really good judgement in supporting the minority government but holding on to the trump card "NO" vote.  How many parties get the chance to vote Yes or NO.  The Icelandic system has alway been the majority makes the laws and always votes "yes" together and the opposition votes "no" together.  No matter what. It is as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow. With Framsóknarflokkurinn giving only support they have added a twist to the normally predictable system and are giving the voters the impression( even if it is only an impression)) that they alone are the defenders of democracy and won't allow any law to be passed that the people don't agree with.  Sigmundur Davið may have done  a "one up" on Einar K. and Steingrimur.

GTB

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